Mt. Pleasant, IA- The KILJ Bracket Challenge, sponsored by the Press Box, is officially underway, and the madness has already overtaken March with a game-winning shot for Texas and 16 three pointers for Miami (Ohio) populating the first-four games. Despite the raucous play, the nearly 60 brackets turned in kept it safe.
It’s time to look at the numbers for this year’s bracket challenge!
The odds favor the overall #1-seed Duke Blue Devils, and the local community agrees with 26 of the 58 (44.5%) brackets turned in guessing that Cameron Boozer will lead the Blue Devils to their sixth National Championship. Following behind was Arizona with 12 picks as champion.
Appropriately, 20 brackets decided that it would the Wildcats meeting Duke in the championship game with the Blue Devils going 12-8 in those matchups. In terms of Final Four appearances, Duke appeared in an astonishing 46 of 58 (79.3%) brackets. The Big 12 did see their fair share of Final Four teams with Houston and Arizona getting put in 35 brackets each.
The state pride was strong with Iowa State getting picked the third-most times to win the championship, which was eight times. They were picked to make the championship game 12 times and the Final Four 25 (43%) times.
That state pride takes us to the most interesting part of March Madness: the upsets! The average amongst the Bracket Challenge masses sits at 5.6, well under the average of eight per year but right on the mark for last year’s historically “boring” opening round.
#9 Iowa proved to be the most common upset (is it really an upset?) with 46 brackets choosing the Hawkeyes over #8 Clemson. The University of Northern Iowa was the most common #12-seed picked to execute the upset with 10 brackets picking the Panthers. However, that state pride only extended to the first round as only five brackets picked Iowa to make it past the second round, but three said Iowa would make the Elite 8.
Talking more about upsets, one bracket selected 17 upsets as the clear outlier. That same bracket chose two #15-seeds to pull off the upset—the only bracket to pick at least one #15-seed upset—and had #14 Penn advance all the way to the championship game, which would be a tournament first. The next closest was #7 St. Mary’s also making the championship game for another bracket.
The #9-seed taking down the #8-seed was the most popular upset (again, upset?) with it being picked 129 times out of a possible 232, which puts the percentage at 55.6% or no longer an upset.
Of the higher-seeded teams that people had little confidence in, #6 North Carolina and #4 Nebraska, both of the south region, were picked to falter in their first-round matchup 20 times and five times, respectively. #6 Louisville is expected to fall to #11 South Florida with 13 brackets picking the upset.
The highest seeded champion picked was #3 Gonzaga. The Hoyas were selected to make the Final Four in just three of the brackets and make the championship game twice according to the local public.
Houston proved to be the most popular loser with only three national championship choices out of the 35 brackets that picked them to be in the Final Four. Still, a Big 12 national championship game was picked nine times.
The most interesting matchup though would be the one bracket that puts the sibling rivalry on full display with Michigan taking on Michigan State for the national championship. It would be just the third time in the history of the tournament that two teams from the same state faced off for the title.
As the first games come to a close through the early afternoon, brackets are already losing their perfect luster; yet the chase towards a championship persists! Stay tuned for score updates throughout the tournament.